Political planning and forecasting play a key role in ensuring the sustainable development of the state, forming effective strategies and managing public processes. In today's increasingly uncertain and dynamic political systems, they are becoming essential tools for preventing crises, minimizing risks, and achieving goals.

Let us consider the essence, tasks, methods and stages of political planning and forecasting, as well as their role in the public administration system.

The concept and essence of political planning and forecasting.

Political planning is the process of developing strategies, goals and mechanisms for achieving them in the field of politics, aimed at ensuring sustainable development and stability of the state. The main characteristics of political planning are a long-term orientation (orientation to the future), a cross-system approach (taking into account many factors) and the relationship with social, economic and international processes.

Political forecasting is the prediction of possible trends, events, and scenarios of political development based on the analysis of the current situation and historical data. The key aspects of forecasting are the consideration of several possible scenarios, scientific validity, i.e. the use of analytical and statistical methods, and the impact on the political decision-making process.

Planning and forecasting are closely interrelated. Forecasting precedes planning and serves as its foundation. If forecasting determines likely development scenarios, then planning forms strategies for responding to and managing these scenarios.

Functions and tasks of political planning and forecasting.

Political planning has its own specific functions. The objective function formulates long-term and short-term goals and public policies. The organizational structure allocates resources and powers to implement political decisions. The regulatory function defines the instruments of influence on political processes. Control panel-monitors the completion of assigned tasks and corrects actions.

The functions of political forecasting include diagnostic analysis of the current state of the political system, preventive analysis – identifying potential threats and risks, analytical analysis – studying the patterns of political development, and programming- creating scientifically based scenarios for the future.

The main objectives of political planning and forecasting areto develop effective political strategies, assess the possible consequences of political decisions, reduce the level of uncertainty and political risks, and ensure sustainable socio-economic development.

For example, the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reform is the central link in the state planning system. The Agency provides leadership in the field of strategic planning, state statistical activities, and implementation of reforms.

The Agency's goal is to develop effective reforms aimed at improving the country's competitiveness and people's well-being. The Agency develops state policy in the field of strategic planning, monitors and evaluates the implementation of strategic development plans, and is the central body responsible for developing a new public administration system.

Through the Bureau of National Statistics, which is part of the Agency, the Agency also performs the function of forming and implementing State policy in the field of statistics.

The Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms is directly subordinate to and accountable to the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan^[45].

Types of political planning. Strategic – long-term planning for decades (for example, national development strategies). Operational – medium-term planning for 3-5 years (for example, government programs). Tactical – short-term planning (for example, election campaigns, reforms in certain areas).

Types of political forecasting. Short-term (from a few months to 1-2 years). Medium-term (from 3 to 5 years). Long-term (more than 10 years). Forecasting is also divided into situational (analysis of short-term changes) and tendentious (determination of long-term trends).

Levels of political planning and forecasting.

- global – influence of international processes, geopolitics;

- native – development of the internal policy of the state. Regional - the policy of individual territories and subjects.

- milky way level – management, local strategies.

Methods of political planning include analysis of problems and goals, scenario modeling, program planning (i.e. planning through specific programs and projects), and expert assessments. Political forecasting uses such methods as: historical analogies – an analysis of past events and their consequences, statistical methods – modeling based on quantitative data.

In political forecasting, a special place is occupied by such methods as the Delphi method-a survey of experts and the formation of a collective forecast, and SWOT analysis- an assessment of strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

Problems and prospects of political planning and forecasting.

- in a high level of uncertainty (variability outside the general political environment, crises);

- political volatility (changes in the political course when the government changes);

- sufficient objectivity of forecasts (influence of ideology and subjective factors);

- limited data (lack of reliable information, closed political processes).

Prospects for the development of political planning and forecasting.

- digital transformation and the use of artificial intelligence in forecasting;

- expanding the interdisciplinary approach (sociology, economics, psychology, big data);

- development of international cooperation in the field of political analysis;

- increasing the participation of civil society in public policy planning.

Political planning and forecasting are the most important tools for managing the state and preventing crisis situations. They enable government agencies and political leaders to develop effective strategies, anticipate threats, and adapt to change. Modern challenges require improvement of analytical methods, the use of digital technologies, and an integrated approach to developing policy solutions.

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^[45] Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/aspr/about?lang=ru. Date of reference: March 2, 2025.